Shell Beach, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

477
FXUS66 KLOX 162056
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
156 PM PDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...16/122 PM.

Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy through Friday with a chance
of light rain or drizzle at times. Temperatures will remain well
below normal. Warmer temperatures are expected Saturday through
the middle of next week but still 3 to 6 degrees below normal
across the coast and valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...16/154 PM.

A classic reverse clearing day today south of Pt Conception as the
marine layer depth approached 6000 feet. Not quite as solid a
stratus layer across SLO and northern Santa Barbara Counties but
plenty of clouds there as well in addition to well below normal
temperatures. Onshore gradients are over 8mb to the desert this
afternoon and that is generating some gusty winds through the
Highway 14 corridor and into the Antelope Valley.

Going forward, the cloud forecast will certainly be a challenge
with still a deep marine layer in place but a rapidly weakening
inversion as the upper low moves through the area with cooler air
aloft. Already seeing a preview of this over the coastal waters
today, and expect the next couple days will be a hodge-podge of
clouds, some clearing at times, and even some light rain or
drizzle chances, especially Thursday into Thursday night across
LA/Ventura Counties. NBM pops have consistently been notably low
for Thu/Fri while virtually all the EPS and many of the GEFS
ensemble solutions have consistently shown light rain or drizzle
with amounts mostly under a tenth of an inch. This latter solution
seems reasonable given the upper low moving through the area
tomorrow generating some mild upward motion and making efficient
use of the 0.9" PWs in place. Temperatures will remain several
degrees below normal with highs mostly in the 60s.

A second upper low will come through the region Friday, though
this one is taking a more inside slider track through NV/AZ so
chances for any precip are lower than Thursday but not zero. Best
chances would be across across eastern LA County and again mostly
just very light precip. And again much cooler than normal
temperatures.

A weak high pressure ridge will move into the state Saturday
leading to several degrees of warming in all areas but especially
inland.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...16/155 PM.

Good agreement with the deterministic and ensemble mdls for the
extended fcst. All signs point to at least 4 days of benign
weather. The upper low will push to the east on Saturday and weak
ridging and/or dry NW flow will set up over the state. Moderate to
strong onshore flow will occur all 4 days. The marine layer
stratus pattern will slowly redevelop as well. Max temps will warm
each day Sat through Mon. The biggest jump in temps will occur
Saturday. By Monday max temps will be 2 to 4 degrees blo normal
across the csts/vlys but will have risen to 3 to 6 degrees above
normal across the interior. Max temps will cool Tuesday as hgts
fall ahead of a trof. The moderate onshore push to the east will
bring gusty afternoon winds to the Antelope Vly and foothills.

&&

.AVIATION...16/1620Z.

Around 1530Z, the marine layer depth was around 5200 feet deep at
KLAX. The top of the marine inversion was near 6000 feet with a
temperature near 7 degrees Celsius.

High confidence in the current forecast. Ceilings at or below
6000 feet will continue through at least 20Z at some terminals,
possibly lingering longer at valley terminals. There is a moderate
chance of clearing at all terminals between 21Z and 03Z, then
ceilings at or below 6000 feet should spread back across the
valley and coastal terminals through 09Z at the latest. There is
a chance of MVFR conditions developing after 06Z, especially in
any showers or drizzle.

KLAX...Ceilings at or below 6000 feet will continue through at
least 18Z, or as late as 20Z. Then, a scattering out of clouds
will likely occur through 02Z. Ceilings at or below 6000 feet
should spread back in between 02Z and 04Z. There is a 30-40
percent chance of MVFR conditions in drizzle or light rain after
07Z.

KBUR...There is a 70 percent of ceilings at or below 6000 feet
continuing through the period. There is a 30 percent chance of
brief scattering out of clouds through 02Z. There is a 30-40
percent chance of MVFR conditions in drizzle or light rain after
07Z.

&&

.MARINE...16/134 PM.

High confidence in the current forecast through early Friday, then
moderate confidence thereafter. Wind and seas conditions are
expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through
at least Friday, then there is a moderate-to-high (30-50 percent)
chance of SCA level winds developing each afternoon and evening
over the weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox